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cm27874's avatar

Most of the increase in life expectancy is due to it being measured as an expectation value. Better hygiene, surgery and medication help to avoid many deaths at young age. Are there any data on the trajectory of, say, the 99% quantile of the age-at-death distribution? The bio-hackers are trying to manipulate the slope of decline at their 58y state, hoping that linear extrapolation will carry them beyond the 120y barrier. But that might be a hard one (btw, this is also one idea in Chris Walley's very interesting post-millennial SF cycle "The Lamb Among the Stars". https://chrisandalisonblog.wordpress.com/chris-walley-author/fiction/puritans-in-space/).

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Jenna Stocker's avatar

As usual, a very good, thought-provoking post, David. And I'm no scientist or expert in anything except not knowing too much, but it seems to me like we (humans/Americans/modern socials?) tend to think we have a concrete handle on what is "normal." I think it's a bit of a moving target. Take climate talk. Minnesota used to be covered with glaciers (hence the 10,000 lakes). Now somewhere along the line the earth's atmosphere heated up enough to melt those glaciers. So, who's to say what "normal" temps are? There weren't any climatologists hyperventilating about global warming back then, so... And I had a good laugh about a fire expert on CNN last night from Eugene, OR claiming people are encroaching on fire's "natural habitat" -- also an interesting take on what's normal. So, for life-span discussion, I think it's relatable. Technology and environmental factors (seat belts! furnaces! food processing plants!) have made life easier and longer and maybe it's more of a question of a natural life window that evolves with modernity/environment/biology than what making oneself a machine. Don't know if any of this makes sense, but you solicited comments, so here you go. Thanks again!

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